Fire RileTier 1
at 0817 DTR Store Championship
decks
12
(44.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
67
34-24-9
overall winrate
57.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.0%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
53.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1352
· median 1360
· range 1135–1694
(12 pilots with an ELO rating)
1067
Q1 1180
Q3 1391
1694
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 8 | 2-5-1 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 40.5% | -4.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -1.9 |
| Fire Suited | 7.4% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 51.0% | +0.7 |
| Water Fractal | 7.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.4% | +6.7 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 66.2% | +12.1 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 7.4% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 49.9% | -0.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 71.3% | +15.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 59.1% | +6.8 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.5% | -4.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.3% | +8.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.7% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.5% | -2.6 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.3% | +4.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.3% | -3.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -3.8 |
| Water Genbu | 3.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.3% | +4.1 |
| Water Neos | 3.7% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.7% | +7.4 |
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 14 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Fast Cure, Dungeon Guide, Liminal Guide. Losers more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Spirit of Fire, Water Resonance Bauble.
Fast Cure
Winning decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Dungeon Guide
Winning decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Liminal Guide
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 3.0.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 10.
Chalice of Blood
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 6.
Spirit of Serene Fire
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 6.
Portentous Tanggu
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 5.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
winning decks 2.1.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
10, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 0.
Spirit of Fire
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Water Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 10.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 10.
Intensified Pyre
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 10.
Wind Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 10.
Show all 156 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 136 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | -0.43 | 4 | 10 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.36 | 1 | 6 | 3 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.36 | 6 | 1 | 4 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.29 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.29 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.29 | 5 | 1 | 6 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.29 | 4 | 0 | 10 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.29 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.29 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.29 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.29 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.21 | 6 | 3 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.21 | 5 | 2 | 7 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.21 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.21 | 2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.21 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.21 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.21 | 2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.21 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Lingering Banshee | -0.21 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.21 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.21 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.21 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.21 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Incinerated Templar | -0.21 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.21 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -0.21 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.21 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -0.21 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.14 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -0.14 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.14 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.14 | 4 | 6 | 3 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.14 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.14 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.14 | 6 | 4 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.14 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.14 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.14 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.14 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.14 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.14 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.07 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cinderbloom Tender | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.07 | 5 | 4 | 0 | |
| Kindling Flare | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.07 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.07 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |
| Searing Rebuke | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slash and Burn | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Everflame Staff | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 13 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Furnace Drone | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |